Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 1?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 78¢ · $440 held · ended Nov 1

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$440.21

Combined PnL

$2.71

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 77.8¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$224.15

Total Shares542

Combined PnL+$35.94

No2 traders

Total Value$216.06

Total Shares339

Combined PnL-$33.23

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 29.8¢	$139.36	$174.31	+$27.21	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 65.8¢	$136.43	$132.02	-$16.22	54% 467-391 (858)
HE hello.67	Noavg 84.9¢	$101.04	$84.04	-$17.01	50% 1907-1873 (3780)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$39.31	$48.22	+$8.91	47% 698-782 (1480)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$1.28	$1.05	-$0.23	55% 18348-14925 (33273)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$0.52	$0.57	+$0.05	18% 365-1640 (2005)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$139.36

Value

$174.31

PnL

+$27.21

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$136.43

Value

$132.02

PnL

-$16.22

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

hello.67

Invested

$101.04

Value

$84.04

PnL

-$17.01

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.31

Value

$48.22

PnL

+$8.91

Record

47%

698-782 (1480)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

18348-14925 (33273)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.05

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.6%

77.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.