Consensus PnL $67K · win rate 64% (124–71, n=195) · was PM monthly #795 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$66.7K
Record
124W / 71L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 195 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#986
Source
PM monthly #795
Trades
99
Markets
237
Volume
$931.1K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?No $6.0K · now 59¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)Eagles $4.0K · now 54¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5Over $2.2K · now 53¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Eagles vs. CommandersEagles $1.9K · now 30¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Commanders)
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?Yes $749 · now 35¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
212 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 45¢- MLB
+44 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +45%
- Soccer
+31 pts
side won 79% of 52 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +37%
- NBA
+28 pts
side won 78% of 59 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +24%
Weakest: College Basketball — held side won 22% of 18 at an average 30¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 23% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 70% of 57)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 83% of 106)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 78% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.