Eagles vs. Commanders

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (60%) · Commanders at 71¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 2

Eagles30¢Commanders70¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 60%

Total Value

$52.5K

Combined PnL

-$183.8

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 70.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Eagles30%

Commanders71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles4 traders

Total Value$23.2K

Total Shares78,773

Combined PnL-$398.79

Commanders6 traders

Total Value$29.3K

Total Shares41,482

Combined PnL+$214.99

Eagles — 40%Commanders — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (9 on Commanders) disagree here.

whaleCommanders 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpCommanders 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCommanders 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Commanders 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123CTR	Eaglesavg 30¢	$21.3K	$21.0K	-$355.37	39% 196-304 (500)
AN AnonymousUsername	Commandersavg 70¢	$16.3K	$16.5K	+$117.76	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
VeryLucky888	Commandersavg 70¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$75	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR	Eaglesavg 30¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$33.33	47% 142-163 (305)
HE Herdonia	Commandersavg 70¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$15.93	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
LI lissartter	Commandersavg 70¢	$290.08	$290.08	+$2.07	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
AA aaabbbCTR	Eaglesavg 30¢	$300	$290	-$10	50% 447-446 (893)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Commandersavg 70¢	$49.7	$49.7	+$0.44	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Commandersavg 62¢	$27.62	$31.19	+$3.79	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 30¢	$5.58	$5.39	-$0.09	50% 697-693 (1390)

wan123CTR

Eagles

Invested

$21,326.26

Value

$21.0K

PnL

-$355.37

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

AnonymousUsername

Commanders

Invested

$16,346.42

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$117.76

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

VeryLucky888

Commanders

Invested

$10,500

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$75

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR

Eagles

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$33.33

Record

47%

142-163 (305)

Herdonia

Commanders

Invested

$1,892.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$15.93

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

lissartter

Commanders

Invested

$290.08

Value

$290.08

PnL

+$2.07

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

aaabbbCTR

Eagles

Invested

$300

Value

$290

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Commanders

Invested

$49.7

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$0.44

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

BoomLaLa<$100

Commanders

Invested

$27.62

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$3.79

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (9 on Commanders) disagree here.

whaleCommanders 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpCommanders 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCommanders 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Commanders 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.