Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$3.5K
-$12.77
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$21.22 | 47% 142-163 (305) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$11.09 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
BO BoomLaLa | Overavg 53.3¢ | $188.66 | $185.85 | -$2.81 | 53% 11582-10087 (21669) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $52.64 | $52.64 | +$0 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $22.56 | $22.56 | +$0.24 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $7.8 | $7.73 | -$0.07 | 50% 697-693 (1390) |
Invested
$2,250
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$21.22
Record
47%
142-163 (305)
Invested
$1,042.7
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$11.09
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$188.66
Value
$185.85
PnL
-$2.81
Record
53%
11582-10087 (21669)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$52.64
Value
$52.64
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$22.56
Value
$22.56
PnL
+$0.24
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$7.73
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
697-693 (1390)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.