Spread: Commanders (-6.5)

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (44%) · Eagles at 54¢ · $211K held · ends Nov 2

Commanders47¢Eagles53¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$210.7K

Combined PnL

$353.03

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders47%

Eagles54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles7 traders

Total Value$124.0K

Total Shares232,580

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Commanders9 traders

Total Value$60.0K

Total Shares130,114

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Eagles — 44%Commanders — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpCommanders 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrCommanders 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Commanders 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Eaglesavg 53¢	$51.3K	$51.8K	+$483.92	53% 615-541 (1156)
KC Kch-Temp	Eaglesavg 52¢	$44.4K	$45.3K	+$1.3K	51% 220-214 (434)
EdZacharyCTR	Commandersavg 47¢	$42.3K	$41.4K	-$900	40% 94-142 (236)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Eaglesavg 52¢	$26.1K	$26.7K	+$640.24	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 52¢	$20.0K	$20.6K	+$576.62
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 46¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	+$63.62
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Eaglesavg 54¢	$21.6K	$21.4K	-$200	53% 915-808 (1723)
VeryLucky888CTR	Commandersavg 47.7¢	$7.1K	$6.9K	-$174.99	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Commandersavg 47.6¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$101.27	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Eaglesavg 52¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$38.47	47% 142-163 (305)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Commandersavg 47.4¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$42.31	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Commandersavg 46.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$3.29	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Commandersavg 47.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$40	47% 100-113 (213)
UP UpTheBlues	Eaglesavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.3	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
CA cavvvyCTR	Commandersavg 46¢	$933.73	$943.88	+$10.15	— 11-7 (18)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Commandersavg 46¢	$460	$465	+$5	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
MA manoamano	Eaglesavg 53¢	$296	$296	+$0	51% 507-478 (985)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Commandersavg 47.5¢	$51.77	$50.14	-$1.08	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
GG GGLPL<$100	Eaglesavg 52¢	$10.72	$10.92	+$0.1	50% 697-693 (1390)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Eagles

Invested

$51,295.89

Value

$51.8K

PnL

+$483.92

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

Kch-Temp

Eagles

Invested

$44,441.26

Value

$45.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

EdZacharyCTR

Commanders

Invested

$42,300

Value

$41.4K

PnL

-$900

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$26,052.99

Value

$26.7K

PnL

+$640.24

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Eagles$19,98852¢+$576.62

Commanders$6,064.9846¢+$63.62

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Eagles

Invested

$21,600

Value

$21.4K

PnL

-$200

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

VeryLucky888CTR

Commanders

Invested

$7,150

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$174.99

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HerdoniaCTR

Commanders

Invested

$4,365.93

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$101.27

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Eagles

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$38.47

Record

47%

142-163 (305)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Commanders

Invested

$2,187.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$42.31

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Commanders

Invested

$1,990.58

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$3.29

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

DolphinBallerCTR

Commanders

Invested

$1,900

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$40

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

UpTheBlues

Eagles

Invested

$1,112.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.3

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

cavvvyCTR

Commanders

Invested

$933.73

Value

$943.88

PnL

+$10.15

Record

—

11-7 (18)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Commanders

Invested

$460

Value

$465

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

manoamano

Eagles

Invested

$296

Value

$296

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

507-478 (985)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$51.77

Value

$50.14

PnL

-$1.08

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

GGLPL<$100

Eagles

Invested

$10.72

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpCommanders 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrCommanders 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Commanders 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.