Consensus PnL -$80K · win rate 51% (1059–1014, n=2073) · was PM monthly #974 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-80.0K
Record
1059W / 1014L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 2073 settled
Batting Avg
94.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1146
Source
PM monthly #974
Record (90 d)
640/1241 · 52%
Trades
2,075
Markets
2,308
Volume
$4.4M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Alina CharaevaAntonia Ruzic $3.6K · now 27¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Alina Charaeva)
Specialties
2,248 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 52¢- MLB
+3 pts
side won 54% of 315 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +1%
- NHL
+9 pts
side won 60% of 58 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +4%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 55% of 127 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 48% of 935 at an average 51¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 46% of 865)
- 50–70¢: 57%(won 53% of 1291)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 74% of 89)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.