Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Denis Klok, while the market favors Ian Luca Vertberger (95%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis Klok

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Denis Klok (70%) · Denis Klok at 5.5¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 8

Ian Luca Vertberger95¢Denis Klok5¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Denis Klok

Consensus Traders

Denis Klok 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.0K

Combined PnL

$-7.6K

Smart Money Entry

35.4¢ → 5.5¢

-84% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidDenis Klok at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Denis Klok

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Ian Luca Vertberger 95%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ian Luca Vertberger95%

Denis Klok6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ian Luca Vertberger3 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares12,757

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Denis Klok7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares40,791

Combined PnL$-10.1K

Ian Luca Vertberger — 30%Denis Klok — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Denis Klok. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDenis Klok 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpDenis Klok 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrDenis Klok 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDenis Klok 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Denis Klok 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Denis Klokavg 36¢	$48.9K	$12.2K	$-36.7K	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
└ Denis Klok leg	Denis Klokavg 36¢	$45.0K	$8.1K	$-36.9K
└ Ian Luca Vertberger leg	Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 89.6¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$167.77
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 73.7¢	$9.3K	$11.9K	+$2.6K	57% 82-61 (143)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Denis Klokavg 30¢	$9.8K	$2.3K	$-7.5K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
└ Denis Klok leg	Denis Klokavg 30¢	$9.3K	$1.7K	$-7.6K
└ Ian Luca Vertberger leg	Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 75.1¢	$466.23	$586.35	+$120.12
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Denis Klokavg 38.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$45.03	59% 30677-21391 (52068)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Denis Klokavg 36.6¢	$9.3K	$1.4K	$-7.9K	48% 1065-1165 (2230)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Denis Klokavg 43.3¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	$-1.1K	60% 4104-2765 (6869)
└ Ian Luca Vertberger leg	Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 85.4¢	$681.87	$714.2	+$3.9
└ Denis Klok leg	Denis Klokavg 43.3¢	$1.5K	$363.48	$-1.1K
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Denis Klokavg 36.8¢	$1.6K	$574.33	$-1.1K	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
poshposhCTR	Denis Klokavg 27.9¢	$851.63	$335.7	-$515.93	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
BI BillBenter2026	Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 89.5¢	$270.98	$174.04	-$96.94	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
FO fortunekingCTR	Denis Klokavg 22¢	$440	$110	-$330	59% 783-549 (1332)
HRTradingCTR	Denis Klokavg 29.3¢	$247.58	$52.25	-$195.34	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Denis Klokavg 64¢	$52.68	$36.27	-$11.96	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Ian Luca Vertbergeravg 61¢	$24.9	$10	+$2.6	85% 5885-1004 (6889)

RN1ARB<$100

Denis Klok

Invested

$48,932.39

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-36.7K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Both legs:

Denis Klok$45,027.1336¢$-36.9K

Ian Luca Vertberger$3,905.2689.6¢+$167.77

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Ian Luca Vertberger

Invested

$9,279.41

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

57%

82-61 (143)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Denis Klok

Invested

$9,756.2

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Both legs:

Denis Klok$9,289.9730¢$-7.6K

Ian Luca Vertberger$466.2375.1¢+$120.12

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Denis Klok

Invested

$1,887.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$45.03

Record

59%

30677-21391 (52068)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Denis Klok

Invested

$9,331.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

48%

1065-1165 (2230)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Denis Klok

Invested

$2,453

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

60%

4104-2765 (6869)

Both legs:

Ian Luca Vertberger$681.8785.4¢+$3.9

Denis Klok$1,499.0843.3¢$-1.1K

omnibus-076daaCTR

Denis Klok

Invested

$1,626.89

Value

$574.33

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

poshposhCTR

Denis Klok

Invested

$851.63

Value

$335.7

PnL

-$515.93

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

BillBenter2026

Ian Luca Vertberger

Invested

$270.98

Value

$174.04

PnL

-$96.94

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

fortunekingCTR

Denis Klok

Invested

$440

Value

$110

PnL

-$330

Record

59%

783-549 (1332)

HRTradingCTR

Denis Klok

Invested

$247.58

Value

$52.25

PnL

-$195.34

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Denis Klok

Invested

$52.68

Value

$36.27

PnL

-$11.96

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Ian Luca Vertberger

Invested

$24.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.6

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

Research grade

AvoidDenis Klok at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Denis Klok

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Ian Luca Vertberger 95%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Denis Klok. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDenis Klok 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpDenis Klok 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrDenis Klok 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDenis Klok 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Denis Klok 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Denis Klok wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.