Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Matteo Sciahbasi, while the market favors Arvid Nordquist (88%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Taranto: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Arvid Nordquist

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Matteo Sciahbasi (57%) · Matteo Sciahbasi at 13¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8

Matteo Sciahbasi13¢Arvid Nordquist87¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Matteo Sciahbasi

Consensus Traders

Matteo Sciahbasi 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$771

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 12.5¢

-69% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMatteo Sciahbasi at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Sciahbasi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Arvid Nordquist 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Matteo Sciahbasi13%

Arvid Nordquist88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matteo Sciahbasi4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares12,288

Combined PnL-$246.41

Arvid Nordquist3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,187

Combined PnL-$524.59

Matteo Sciahbasi — 57%Arvid Nordquist — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Matteo Sciahbasiavg 45.9¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$298.88	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Arvid Nordquistavg 81.1¢	$1.2K	$933.86	-$220.3	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
TH thestingsnake	Arvid Nordquistavg 78.8¢	$1.0K	$642.41	-$304.39	60% 4104-2765 (6869)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Matteo Sciahbasiavg 20.3¢	$559.47	$536.91	-$22.56	48% 1065-1165 (2230)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Matteo Sciahbasiavg 52.6¢	$333.56	$405.85	+$72.29	59% 30677-21391 (52068)
poshposhARB<$100	Matteo Sciahbasiavg 42¢	$185.18	$211.64	+$26.47	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
└ Matteo Sciahbasi leg	Matteo Sciahbasiavg 42¢	$126	$150	+$24
└ Arvid Nordquist leg	Arvid Nordquistavg 48¢	$59.18	$61.64	+$2.47
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Matteo Sciahbasiavg 45.8¢	$20.94	$23.68	+$2.74	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Arvid Nordquistavg 56¢	$10.54	$16.95	+$0.09	55% 1778-1467 (3245)

RN1CTR

Matteo Sciahbasi

Invested

$4,093.24

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$298.88

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$1,154.16

Value

$933.86

PnL

-$220.3

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

thestingsnake

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$1,040.3

Value

$642.41

PnL

-$304.39

Record

60%

4104-2765 (6869)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Matteo Sciahbasi

Invested

$559.47

Value

$536.91

PnL

-$22.56

Record

48%

1065-1165 (2230)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Matteo Sciahbasi

Invested

$333.56

Value

$405.85

PnL

+$72.29

Record

59%

30677-21391 (52068)

poshposhARB<$100

Matteo Sciahbasi

Invested

$185.18

Value

$211.64

PnL

+$26.47

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

Both legs:

Matteo Sciahbasi$12642¢+$24

Arvid Nordquist$59.1848¢+$2.47

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Matteo Sciahbasi

Invested

$20.94

Value

$23.68

PnL

+$2.74

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Arvid Nordquist

Invested

$10.54

Value

$16.95

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

1778-1467 (3245)

Research grade

AvoidMatteo Sciahbasi at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Matteo Sciahbasi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Arvid Nordquist 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matteo Sciahbasi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.