Consensus PnL $428K · win rate 83% (174–35, n=209) · PM monthly #506 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$428.0K
Record
174W / 35L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 209 settled
Batting Avg
56.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#369
Source
PM monthly #506 + pinned
Trades
4,471
Markets
253
Volume
$58.1M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $166K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?No $43K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $22K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
Specialties
217 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 84¢- Economy
+2 pts
side won 89% of 53 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 86% of 37 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: MMA — held side won 92% of 12 at an average 97¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −20%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 12% of 25)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 25% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 50% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 98% of 184)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.