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8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$51.6K
$3.2K
89.7¢ → 96.8¢
+8% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a | Noavg 90¢ | $40.8K | $43.2K | +$3.0K | 81% 194-46 (240) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 95.1¢ | $4.5K | $4.6K | +$70.9 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 92.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$18 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 90¢ | $956.04 | $952.52 | +$67.49 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
LE leegunner | Noavg 80.8¢ | $537.68 | $563.58 | +$25.9 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 Gohst | Noavg 19.4¢ | $70 | $348.37 | +$278.38 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
JE Jest55CTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $510.6 | $255.37 | -$328.98 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 Optimus- | Noavg 52¢ | $77.99 | $145.19 | +$66.97 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $10.56 | $63.92 | +$53.35 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
Invested
$40,811.82
Value
$43.2K
PnL
+$3.0K
Record
81%
194-46 (240)
Invested
$4,483.91
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$70.9
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
StarMasterInvested
$1,434
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$18
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$956.04
Value
$952.52
PnL
+$67.49
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$537.68
Value
$563.58
PnL
+$25.9
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
GohstInvested
$70
Value
$348.37
PnL
+$278.38
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
Invested
$510.6
Value
$255.37
PnL
-$328.98
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
Optimus-Invested
$77.99
Value
$145.19
PnL
+$66.97
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
2B9S<$100Invested
$10.56
Value
$63.92
PnL
+$53.35
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.