Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

20 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $582K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$581.6K

Combined PnL

$8.7K

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 99.4¢

+2% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 25 top traders (80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$581.4K

Total Shares585,161

Combined PnL+$9.0K

No5 traders

Total Value$136.23

Total Shares20,958

Combined PnL-$288.21

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 94% · 18

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 97.7¢	$457.1K	$454.2K	+$7.5K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
0X 0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a	Yesavg 98.4¢	$21.6K	$21.8K	+$172.68	81% 194-46 (240)
57 57284910	Yesavg 98.5¢	$17.3K	$17.4K	+$148.28	100% 23-0 (23)
wish-	Yesavg 98¢	$16.0K	$16.1K	+$138.89	79% 1176-319 (1495)
AV aviato	Yesavg 94.7¢	$11.8K	$12.1K	+$277.09	84% 2440-449 (2889)
JJo	Yesavg 98.9¢	$11.9K	$12.0K	+$54.15	66% 944-496 (1440)
Car	Yesavg 98.6¢	$9.9K	$9.9K	-$9.94	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
AV Avamax	Yesavg 98.3¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$100	81% 421-101 (522)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Yesavg 96.1¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$246.1	85% 605-108 (713)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 97.8¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$71.29	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
IN insidero	Yesavg 98.9¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$18	76% 291-93 (384)
CH chriszyy3	Yesavg 98.7¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$21.41	94% 242-16 (258)
MP mpstire-lutuwar	Yesavg 97.7¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$40.25	85% 171-30 (201)
OraculumNobius	Yesavg 98.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$25	90% 5487-612 (6099)
bigshort	Yesavg 97.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$35.16	83% 357-71 (428)
Debosnys	Yesavg 95.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$48.74	89% 1868-225 (2093)
ST stupid22	Yesavg 97.8¢	$736.62	$748.67	+$11.3	94% 411-26 (437)
allenzzz	Yesavg 90¢	$362.86	$397.08	+$34.23	78% 125-36 (161)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 98¢	$107.81	$108.43	+$0.62	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
HO HotDogs<$100	Yesavg 91.6¢	$93.38	$99.51	+$6.13	94% 442-28 (470)
ED Ed2357CTR	Noavg 1.5¢	$217	$92.78	-$124.13	— 0-3 (3)
LI linethCTR	Noavg 3.9¢	$133.14	$22.15	-$109.27	41% 245-350 (595)
SI singularitymanCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$46.97	$7.73	-$38.65	42% 138-193 (331)
paddaaCTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$9.41	$6.8	-$2.61	56% 836-644 (1480)
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$20.32	$6.77	-$13.55	77% 1408-416 (1824)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$457,123.28

Value

$454.2K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a

Yes

Invested

$21,582.13

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$172.68

Record

81%

194-46 (240)

57284910

Yes

Invested

$17,269.7

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$148.28

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

wish-

Yes

Invested

$15,986.15

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$138.89

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

aviato

Yes

Invested

$11,806.25

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$277.09

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

JJo

Yes

Invested

$11,901.25

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$54.15

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

Car

Yes

Invested

$9,949.94

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$9.94

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

Avamax

Yes

Invested

$9,829.99

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Yes

Invested

$7,277.23

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$246.1

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$4,434.63

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$71.29

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$3,956

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$18

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

chriszyy3

Yes

Invested

$3,250.95

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$21.41

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

mpstire-lutuwar

Yes

Invested

$2,443.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$40.25

Record

85%

171-30 (201)

OraculumNobius

Yes

Invested

$1,962

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$25

Record

90%

5487-612 (6099)

bigshort

Yes

Invested

$1,668.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$35.16

Record

83%

357-71 (428)

Debosnys

Yes

Invested

$1,177.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$48.74

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

stupid22

Yes

Invested

$736.62

Value

$748.67

PnL

+$11.3

Record

94%

411-26 (437)

allenzzz

Yes

Invested

$362.86

Value

$397.08

PnL

+$34.23

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$107.81

Value

$108.43

PnL

+$0.62

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

HotDogs<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.38

Value

$99.51

PnL

+$6.13

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Ed2357CTR

Invested

$217

Value

$92.78

PnL

-$124.13

Record

—

0-3 (3)

linethCTR

Invested

$133.14

Value

$22.15

PnL

-$109.27

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

singularitymanCTR<$100

Invested

$46.97

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$38.65

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

paddaaCTR<$100

Invested

$9.41

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$2.61

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

QMG-CORECTR<$100

Invested

$20.32

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$13.55

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 25 top traders (80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 94% · 18

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.