Consensus PnL $2.4K · win rate 65% (2087–1126, n=3213) · was PM monthly #750 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.4K
Record
2087W / 1126L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 3213 settled
Batting Avg
46.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#919
Source
PM monthly #750
Trades
2,285
Markets
3,925
Volume
$957.5K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $977 · now 42¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (50% of 46)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes $305 · now 81¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (67% of 27)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $280 · now 84¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (63% of 24)
Specialties
1,497 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 70¢- NFL
+51 pts
side won 99% of 125 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +50%
- College Football
+49 pts
side won 99% of 140 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +50%
- Weather
+29 pts
side won 100% of 163 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +29%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 52% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 96% of 244)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 97% of 482)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 750)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.