Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
18 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 81¢ · $21K held · ends Dec 1
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
27
Yes 67%
$21.0K
$1.4K
71.2¢ → 81¢
+14% since entry · 18 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 81%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
18 of 27 top traders (67%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
18 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Late
1161h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 betwick | Yesavg 57.4¢ | $4.9K | $6.5K | +$1.9K | 55% 353-292 (645) |
PA Paul973973 | Yesavg 92.9¢ | $5.0K | $4.3K | -$642.09 | 89% 923-118 (1041) |
FU Fulgurator | Yesavg 77.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$60.95 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
 GollumGekko | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$333.87 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
 rabbit007 | Yesavg 68.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$167.64 | 53% 355-309 (664) |
 aenews2 | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $575.18 | $795.24 | +$220.06 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
 Dragontree | Yesavg 86.3¢ | $559.63 | $515.59 | -$44.04 | 58% 1250-888 (2138) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Noavg 50¢ | $1.3K | $492.37 | -$803.32 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
 Car | Yesavg 63.3¢ | $366.28 | $476.65 | +$110.37 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 funnyday | Yesavg 82¢ | $409.99 | $399.99 | -$7.5 | 50% 3914-3899 (7813) |
 0x8712CTR | Noavg 14¢ | $250 | $380 | +$130 | 30% 102-237 (339) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 66¢ | $256.6 | $313.4 | +$56.8 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Yesavg 85¢ | $2.0K | $308.03 | -$51.98 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
AM AmericaFirst1 | Yesavg 63¢ | $240.44 | $305.24 | +$66.71 | 62% 2198-1345 (3543) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 29.6¢ | $118.38 | $200.82 | +$82.44 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
DE dedidancCTR | Noavg 31¢ | $289.54 | $177.46 | -$98.07 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 57.6¢ | $110.41 | $151.99 | +$41.58 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR | Noavg 8¢ | $54.22 | $128.77 | +$71.16 | 42% 2258-3075 (5333) |
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR | Noavg 34.6¢ | $189.22 | $110.62 | -$78.6 | 73% 350-129 (479) |
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 67.8¢ | $104.81 | $109.61 | +$4.8 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $39.44 | $46.4 | +$7.54 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
LO Logan.CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $98.9 | $43.7 | -$56.35 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
 StarMaster<$100 | Yesavg 68.1¢ | $44.76 | $40.01 | -$4.75 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $74 | $38 | -$33 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $20.5 | $20.25 | -$0.25 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
betwickInvested
$4,876.64
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
55%
353-292 (645)
Invested
$5,000
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$642.09
Record
89%
923-118 (1041)
Invested
$2,295.8
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$60.95
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
GollumGekkoInvested
$1,257.46
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$333.87
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
rabbit007Invested
$1,024.63
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$167.64
Record
53%
355-309 (664)
aenews2Invested
$575.18
Value
$795.24
PnL
+$220.06
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
DragontreeInvested
$559.63
Value
$515.59
PnL
-$44.04
Record
58%
1250-888 (2138)
Invested
$1,295.69
Value
$492.37
PnL
-$803.32
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
CarInvested
$366.28
Value
$476.65
PnL
+$110.37
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
funnydayInvested
$409.99
Value
$399.99
PnL
-$7.5
Record
50%
3914-3899 (7813)
0x8712CTRInvested
$250
Value
$380
PnL
+$130
Record
30%
102-237 (339)
Invested
$256.6
Value
$313.4
PnL
+$56.8
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
StupidMonkeyyyInvested
$1,996.02
Value
$308.03
PnL
-$51.98
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
Invested
$240.44
Value
$305.24
PnL
+$66.71
Record
62%
2198-1345 (3543)
Invested
$118.38
Value
$200.82
PnL
+$82.44
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$289.54
Value
$177.46
PnL
-$98.07
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$110.41
Value
$151.99
PnL
+$41.58
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
Invested
$54.22
Value
$128.77
PnL
+$71.16
Record
42%
2258-3075 (5333)
Invested
$189.22
Value
$110.62
PnL
-$78.6
Record
73%
350-129 (479)
Tenebrus7Invested
$104.81
Value
$109.61
PnL
+$4.8
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$39.44
Value
$46.4
PnL
+$7.54
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Invested
$98.9
Value
$43.7
PnL
-$56.35
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
StarMaster<$100Invested
$44.76
Value
$40.01
PnL
-$4.75
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$74
Value
$38
PnL
-$33
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$20.5
Value
$20.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.