Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 22 of 44 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

22 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 42¢ · $142K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$141.6K

Combined PnL

$6.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 42.3¢

-31% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 44 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No22 traders

Total Value$85.8K

Total Shares149,105

Combined PnL+$25.9K

Yes22 traders

Total Value$55.2K

Total Shares128,653

Combined PnL$-19.2K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

2145h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 52% · 21

Diverging

sharpYes 54% · 13

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 54% · 28

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 28

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x57D579b361F5586874E409749E93953914fb060D-1776337925471	Noavg 66¢	$20.0K	$17.6K	$-2.5K	— 1-2 (3)
Erasmus.CTR	Yesavg 62.7¢	$24.6K	$16.7K	$-7.9K	65% 393-215 (608)
MEPP	Noavg 44.2¢	$11.5K	$15.0K	+$3.5K	64% 633-352 (985)
classified	Noavg 56.6¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$62.75	58% 844-614 (1458)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 18.5¢	$2.8K	$8.6K	+$5.9K	73% 350-129 (479)
GayPride	Noavg 12.7¢	$1.7K	$8.0K	+$6.3K	49% 357-367 (724)
Parz1vaICTR	Yesavg 75.8¢	$10.1K	$7.2K	$-3.0K	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
yen4u	Noavg 4.4¢	$527.33	$7.0K	+$6.5K	86% 809-136 (945)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 43.5¢	$6.3K	$6.7K	+$393.04	56% 836-645 (1481)
HO hopedieslast	Noavg 41.4¢	$4.5K	$5.7K	+$1.3K	59% 118-81 (199)
AN anoin123	Noavg 35.3¢	$3.2K	$5.2K	+$2.0K	47% 476-535 (1011)
CarCTR	Yesavg 41.1¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$203.75	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 52.6¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$104.1	36% 190-333 (523)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 63.6¢	$27.7K	$3.4K	$-1.4K	59% 986-684 (1670)
ZaratustraCTR	Yesavg 67¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	$-2.0K	62% 351-214 (565)
88 881112	Noavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$334.52	38% 567-944 (1511)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 19.2¢	$728.89	$2.0K	+$1.3K	56% 973-770 (1743)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 76.3¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$910.95	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
DonationsReceiverCTR	Yesavg 49.9¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$211.75	60% 245-160 (405)
SK skibabibaCTR	Yesavg 84.6¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.3K	87% 95-14 (109)
NiceDuckBroCTR	Yesavg 70.9¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$718.2	65% 335-177 (512)
LA Lasting-DessertCTR	Yesavg 83.7¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	$-1.1K	89% 563-67 (630)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Yesavg 79.4¢	$1.8K	$977.22	-$868	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
tja	Noavg 20.1¢	$302.94	$868.07	+$566.64	73% 867-323 (1190)
MisTKyCTR	Yesavg 44.4¢	$3.9K	$707.37	-$66.43	71% 568-236 (804)

0x57D579b361F5586874E409749E93953914fb060D-1776337925471

Invested

$20,000

Value

$17.6K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

—

1-2 (3)

Erasmus.CTR

Yes

Invested

$24,575.99

Value

$16.7K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

65%

393-215 (608)

MEPP

Invested

$11,487.35

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

classified

Invested

$10,468.17

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$62.75

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$2,750.55

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

GayPride

Invested

$1,743.33

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

Parz1vaICTR

Yes

Invested

$10,124.81

Value

$7.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

yen4u

Invested

$527.33

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,298.77

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$393.04

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

hopedieslast

Invested

$4,522.6

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

anoin123

Invested

$3,195.89

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,603.34

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$203.75

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,272.19

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$104.1

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$27,711.83

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

ZaratustraCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,312.24

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

881112

Invested

$1,958.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$334.52

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$728.89

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,616.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$910.95

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

DonationsReceiverCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,772.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$211.75

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

skibabibaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,538

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

NiceDuckBroCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,772.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$718.2

Record

65%

335-177 (512)

Lasting-DessertCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,092.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,825.68

Value

$977.22

PnL

-$868

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

tja

Invested

$302.94

Value

$868.07

PnL

+$566.64

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

MisTKyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,929.56

Value

$707.37

PnL

-$66.43

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 44 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

2145h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 52% · 21

Diverging

sharpYes 54% · 13

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 54% · 28

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 28

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.5%

42.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$124.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

224.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.