Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 30¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Yes71¢No29¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$152.75

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 29.5¢

-60% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,346

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,266

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 30.9¢	$748.43	$1.6K	+$811.38	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 74.2¢	$2.7K	$1.3K	$-1.5K	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 25.1¢	$414.59	$951.84	+$537.26	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$472.48	$489.98	+$5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$359.98	$374.98	+$2.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$135	$115	+$2.5
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Noavg 76.1¢	$327.59	$344.54	+$16.95	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$324.17	$309.86	-$14.31	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.9¢	$73.12	$198.49	+$125.37
└ No leg	Noavg 73.3¢	$251.05	$111.37	-$139.68
CA Cannae	Yesavg 27¢	$115.24	$117.8	+$2.56	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 74.1¢	$107.39	$51.25	-$56.13	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$22.95	$23.46	+$0.51	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$19.26	$14.56	-$4.7	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$12.5	$12.75	+$0.25	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.98	+$0.02	54% 6427-5413 (11840)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.76	$3.91	-$0.85	54% 3099-2669 (5768)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$748.43

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$811.38

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$2,747.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$414.59

Value

$951.84

PnL

+$537.26

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$472.48

Value

$489.98

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

Both legs:

No$359.9872¢+$2.5

Yes$13527¢+$2.5

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Invested

$327.59

Value

$344.54

PnL

+$16.95

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$324.17

Value

$309.86

PnL

-$14.31

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

Both legs:

Yes$73.1224.9¢+$125.37

No$251.0573.3¢-$139.68

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$115.24

Value

$117.8

PnL

+$2.56

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$107.39

Value

$51.25

PnL

-$56.13

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.95

Value

$23.46

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$19.26

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$4.7

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.85

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.