Consensus PnL -$141K · win rate 58% (519–369, n=888) · was PM monthly #661 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-140.6K
Record
519W / 369L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 888 settled
Batting Avg
76.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1284
Source
PM monthly #661
Trades
869
Markets
963
Volume
$5.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $648 · now 43¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (No)
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)SS Lazio $220 · now 13¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Cagliari Calcio)
Specialties
587 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 62¢- Soccer
+34 pts
side won 96% of 307 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +35%
- Esports
+33 pts
side won 94% of 260 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +35%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 30% of 10 at an average 38¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 61% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 88% of 92)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 96% of 286)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 98% of 191)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.