Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Cagliari Calcio (57%) · Cagliari Calcio at 93¢ · $85K held · ended Nov 1

SS Lazio8¢Cagliari Calcio92¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cagliari Calcio

Consensus Traders

Cagliari Calcio 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$85.2K

Combined PnL

$14.9K

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 92.5¢

+51% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

12 of 21 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SS Lazio8%

Cagliari Calcio93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cagliari Calcio12 traders

Total Value$74.3K

Total Shares94,462

Combined PnL+$16.6K

SS Lazio9 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares28,563

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Cagliari Calcio — 57%SS Lazio — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Cagliari Calcio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Cagliari Calcio) and the top 1000 (19 on SS Lazio) disagree here.

whaleCagliari Calcio 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpCagliari Calcio 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCagliari Calcio 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedCagliari Calcio 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000SS Lazio 58% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Cagliari Calcioavg 61¢	$27.5K	$35.2K	+$7.9K	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
OM omnibus-076daa	Cagliari Calcioavg 60.6¢	$22.3K	$28.8K	+$6.6K	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
LZ lzh1	Cagliari Calcioavg 62¢	$2.8K	$3.5K	+$720	43% 471-634 (1105)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$75	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 61¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	-$55.05	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
└ Cagliari Calcio leg	Cagliari Calcioavg 61¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$188.23
└ SS Lazio leg	SS Lazioavg 39.5¢	$1.4K	$763.18	-$243.28
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	SS Lazioavg 36.7¢	$3.7K	$2.2K	$-1.5K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
UP UpTheBlues	Cagliari Calcioavg 72.9¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$351.63	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1	Cagliari Calcioavg 64.7¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$315.61	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
VeryLucky888	Cagliari Calcioavg 60.5¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	+$409.85	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
CA CannaeARB<$100	SS Lazioavg 39.7¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$146.12	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ Cagliari Calcio leg	Cagliari Calcioavg 61.4¢	$667.61	$847.44	+$179.83
└ SS Lazio leg	SS Lazioavg 39.7¢	$1.2K	$641.6	-$33.71
0xheavy888	Cagliari Calcioavg 61.8¢	$494	$624	+$134	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
AN AnonymousUsername	Cagliari Calcioavg 58.7¢	$425.07	$564.71	+$139.64	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$450	$440	-$10	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
SN SnakeBall	Cagliari Calcioavg 67¢	$268	$366	+$54	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$390	$220	-$170	57% 550-409 (959)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 61.4¢	$133.49	$158	+$24.51	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Cagliari Calcio leg	Cagliari Calcioavg 61.4¢	$97.06	$123.24	+$26.18
└ SS Lazio leg	SS Lazioavg 39.6¢	$62.5	$34.76	-$1.67
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 32¢	$83.56	$57.45	-$26.11	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 61.3¢	$29.21	$39.09	+$9.88	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 62.3¢	$21.9	$31.6	+$9.7	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$44.74	$25.24	-$19.5	65% 1758-962 (2720)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$17.96	$13.86	-$4.1	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$20.51	$11.57	-$8.94	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 65.6¢	$8.3	$10.69	+$2.38	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 21¢	$5.25	$5.5	+$0.25	55% 3009-2439 (5448)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$27,516.56

Value

$35.2K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

omnibus-076daa

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$22,263.2

Value

$28.8K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

lzh1

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$2,790

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$720

Record

43%

471-634 (1105)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$3,225

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$75

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

hi774cARB<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$2,772.9

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$55.05

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

Both legs:

Cagliari Calcio$1,766.4461¢+$188.23

SS Lazio$1,370.7139.5¢-$243.28

GoalLineGhostCTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$3,685

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

UpTheBlues

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$1,376.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$351.63

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$1,432.56

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$315.61

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

VeryLucky888

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$2,037.43

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$409.85

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

CannaeARB<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$1,342.92

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$146.12

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

Cagliari Calcio$667.6161.4¢+$179.83

SS Lazio$1,156.5139.7¢-$33.71

0xheavy888

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$494

Value

$624

PnL

+$134

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

AnonymousUsername

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$425.07

Value

$564.71

PnL

+$139.64

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$450

Value

$440

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

SnakeBall

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$268

Value

$366

PnL

+$54

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$390

Value

$220

PnL

-$170

Record

57%

550-409 (959)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$133.49

Value

$158

PnL

+$24.51

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Cagliari Calcio$97.0661.4¢+$26.18

SS Lazio$62.539.6¢-$1.67

LuckyLooCTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$83.56

Value

$57.45

PnL

-$26.11

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

HRTrading<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$29.21

Value

$39.09

PnL

+$9.88

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$21.9

Value

$31.6

PnL

+$9.7

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$44.74

Value

$25.24

PnL

-$19.5

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

forecastication4CTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$17.96

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$4.1

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$20.51

Value

$11.57

PnL

-$8.94

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

topdogbigboi<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$8.3

Value

$10.69

PnL

+$2.38

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Anon455CTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

12 of 21 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Cagliari Calcio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Cagliari Calcio) and the top 1000 (19 on SS Lazio) disagree here.

whaleCagliari Calcio 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpCagliari Calcio 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCagliari Calcio 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedCagliari Calcio 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000SS Lazio 58% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cagliari Calcio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.