Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$48.9K

Combined PnL

$94.93

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 99.9¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$48.6K

Total Shares48,807

Combined PnL+$705.35

No4 traders

Total Value$357.55

Total Shares16,661

Combined PnL-$610.42

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 96.4¢	$22.8K	$23.4K	+$474.35	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
CA Candela	Yesavg 99.9¢	$10.7K	$10.6K	-$16.08	97% 426-11 (437)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 98.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$23.69	59% 1064-740 (1804)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 98¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$92.5	81% 250-58 (308)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 98.2¢	$8.7K	$3.5K	+$96.5	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
SH Sharky6999	Yesavg 97.4¢	$876.6	$891	+$21.15	98% 6914-167 (7081)
SS ssddssdCTR	Noavg 4.7¢	$383.1	$173.15	-$362.92	52% 338-316 (654)
GO gobblewobble	Yesavg 89.6¢	$116.37	$128.58	+$13.31	59% 877-611 (1488)
19 196874353278CTR	Noavg 2.1¢	$124.72	$127.74	-$97.94	45% 212-263 (475)
EA easypredictCTR	Noavg 8.1¢	$152.82	$39.08	-$145.46	56% 270-208 (478)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$4.5	$17.58	-$4.09	49% 274-288 (562)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 99.8¢	$11.42	$11.33	-$0.09	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$22,832.82

Value

$23.4K

PnL

+$474.35

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

Candela

Yes

Invested

$10,712.95

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$16.08

Record

97%

426-11 (437)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$5,057.72

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$23.69

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$4,900

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$92.5

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$8,749.01

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$96.5

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

Sharky6999

Yes

Invested

$876.6

Value

$891

PnL

+$21.15

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

ssddssdCTR

Invested

$383.1

Value

$173.15

PnL

-$362.92

Record

52%

338-316 (654)

gobblewobble

Yes

Invested

$116.37

Value

$128.58

PnL

+$13.31

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

196874353278CTR

Invested

$124.72

Value

$127.74

PnL

-$97.94

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

easypredictCTR

Invested

$152.82

Value

$39.08

PnL

-$145.46

Record

56%

270-208 (478)

PhongLeXBTCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$17.58

PnL

-$4.09

Record

49%

274-288 (562)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.33

PnL

-$0.09

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.