Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 26-November 1?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

$117.16

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares17,808

Combined PnL+$117.16

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 99.2¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$45	54% 785-659 (1444)
Facaie	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$0	93% 1312-105 (1417)
justdance	Noavg 99.1¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$25.5	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 99¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$22.97	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 99.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$17	76% 279-86 (365)
CA Candela	Noavg 99.8¢	$898.2	$899.1	+$0.45	97% 426-11 (437)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 98.8¢	$649.12	$656.34	+$6.24	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$5,952

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$45

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

Facaie

Invested

$3,029.97

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

justdance

Invested

$2,973

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$25.5

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$2,188.15

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$22.97

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,982

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$17

Record

76%

279-86 (365)

Candela

Invested

$898.2

Value

$899.1

PnL

+$0.45

Record

97%

426-11 (437)

0xDB5

Invested

$649.12

Value

$656.34

PnL

+$6.24

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.