Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 26-November 1?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$25.4K
$563.52
97.7¢ → 99.8¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
65h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $11.4K | $11.9K | +$500.95 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$44.74 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.8¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$3.73 | 93% 1312-105 (1417) |
CA Candela | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$0.95 | 97% 426-11 (437) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $945.12 | $955.09 | +$11.4 | 76% 279-86 (365) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $725.95 | $735.69 | +$9.75 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $8.19 | $0.19 | -$8 | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
Invested
$11,406.5
Value
$11.9K
PnL
+$500.95
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$6,716.88
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$44.74
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
FacaieInvested
$3,139.37
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$3.73
Record
93%
1312-105 (1417)
Invested
$1,893.43
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$0.95
Record
97%
426-11 (437)
Invested
$945.12
Value
$955.09
PnL
+$11.4
Record
76%
279-86 (365)
Invested
$725.95
Value
$735.69
PnL
+$9.75
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$8.19
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$8
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.