Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$20.6K
$925.29
95.3¢ → 99.9¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
116h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $7.9K | $8.0K | +$166.6 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $5.0K | $5.7K | +$691.9 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$1.98 | 93% 1312-105 (1417) |
 justdance | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$41.12 | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
CA Candela | Noavg 99.8¢ | $998 | $997 | -$1.5 | 97% 426-11 (437) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $806.05 | $829.2 | +$23.15 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $102.8 | $104.69 | +$2.05 | 76% 279-86 (365) |
Invested
$7,859.6
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$166.6
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
Invested
$4,990.17
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$691.9
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
FacaieInvested
$2,984.04
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.98
Record
93%
1312-105 (1417)
justdanceInvested
$1,958.9
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$41.12
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
Invested
$998
Value
$997
PnL
-$1.5
Record
97%
426-11 (437)
Invested
$806.05
Value
$829.2
PnL
+$23.15
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
Invested
$102.8
Value
$104.69
PnL
+$2.05
Record
76%
279-86 (365)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.