Consensus PnL -$57K · win rate 78% (134–37, n=171) · was PM monthly #615 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-56.9K
Record
134W / 37L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 171 settled
Batting Avg
37.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#525
Source
PM monthly #615
Record (90 d)
73/85 · 86%
Trades
103
Markets
189
Volume
$1.9M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $80 · now 23¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
156 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 86¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 93% of 92 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 84% of 25 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +10%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 82% of 11 at an average 82¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 40% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 63% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 90%(won 93% of 141)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.