Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 20 of 30 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

20 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 28¢ · $107K held · ends Dec 9

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$107.1K

Combined PnL

$9.0K

Smart Money Entry

23.9¢ → 27.5¢

+15% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 30 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$55.7K

Total Shares205,670

Combined PnL+$8.8K

No10 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares10,007

Combined PnL+$221.02

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 72% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$41.5K	$44.1K	+$2.6K	50% 5951-6042 (11993)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.9¢	$30.3K	$29.4K	-$959.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.9¢	$11.2K	$14.7K	+$3.5K
foodenjoyerCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$12.5K	$14.3K	+$2.7K	49% 47-49 (96)
MisTKyCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$6.5K	$7.6K	+$1.3K	71% 568-236 (804)
DI DildoPhagginsCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$6.1K	$6.9K	+$886.11	— 3-0 (3)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 20.2¢	$4.5K	$6.1K	+$1.6K	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.4K	$4.1K	+$692.31	42% 71-100 (171)
QM QMG-CORECTR	Yesavg 21.5¢	$2.1K	$4.0K	+$975.01	77% 1408-416 (1824)
perfectnostalgia	Noavg 75¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$125	55% 338-273 (611)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$351.26	47% 476-535 (1011)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$150	36% 190-333 (523)
LI lissartter	Noavg 70.6¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$105.47	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$115.06	36% 397-691 (1088)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$906.5	$1.2K	+$309.08	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 26.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$64.35	38% 567-944 (1511)
CarCTR	Yesavg 20.8¢	$616.61	$899.91	+$283.31	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
CD CDAP1CTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$431.63	$633.8	+$202.16	30% 11-26 (37)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 74.9¢	$442.24	$435.43	-$6.81	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
debased	Noavg 77¢	$463.82	$433.7	-$27.11	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$382.5	$405	+$22.5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 66.6¢	$1.9K	$386.55	+$126.8	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 20.7¢	$267.77	$339.51	+$87.77	39% 175-269 (444)
12 123987456	Noavg 75.9¢	$1.6K	$336.67	+$366.78	45% 1906-2351 (4257)
DonkovCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$230.67	$326.7	+$96.03	71% 968-396 (1364)
TBill1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$330	$324	-$6	45% 154-188 (342)
CO Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$95.94	$97.3	+$1.36	38% 20-32 (52)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$59.94	$61.05	+$1.11
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$36	$36.25	+$0.25

purplegattoARB<$100

Invested

$41,548.35

Value

$44.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

50%

5951-6042 (11993)

Both legs:

No$30,316.2574.9¢-$959.98

Yes$11,231.0920.9¢+$3.5K

foodenjoyerCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,464.91

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

MisTKyCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,464.84

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

DildoPhagginsCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,111

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$886.11

Record

—

3-0 (3)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,453.67

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,350

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$692.31

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

QMG-CORECTR

Yes

Invested

$2,150

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$975.01

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

perfectnostalgia

Invested

$3,750

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$125

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,156.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$351.26

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,900

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$150

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

lissartter

Invested

$2,029.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$105.47

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,810

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$115.06

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$906.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$309.08

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,023.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$64.35

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$616.61

Value

$899.91

PnL

+$283.31

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

CDAP1CTR

Yes

Invested

$431.63

Value

$633.8

PnL

+$202.16

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$442.24

Value

$435.43

PnL

-$6.81

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

debased

Invested

$463.82

Value

$433.7

PnL

-$27.11

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$382.5

Value

$405

PnL

+$22.5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,850.94

Value

$386.55

PnL

+$126.8

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$267.77

Value

$339.51

PnL

+$87.77

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

123987456

Invested

$1,627.53

Value

$336.67

PnL

+$366.78

Record

45%

1906-2351 (4257)

DonkovCTR

Yes

Invested

$230.67

Value

$326.7

PnL

+$96.03

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

TBill1CTR

Yes

Invested

$330

Value

$324

PnL

-$6

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

Contestable-ParfaitARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.94

Value

$97.3

PnL

+$1.36

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Both legs:

Yes$59.9427¢+$1.11

No$3672¢+$0.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 30 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 72% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.