Nets vs. Pacers

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 62¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 1

Nets39¢Pacers61¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.7K

Combined PnL

-$338.92

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 61.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nets39%

Pacers62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers8 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares37,315

Combined PnL-$343.7

Nets8 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares13,189

Combined PnL+$4.78

Pacers — 50%Nets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nets) and the top 1000 (12 on Pacers) disagree here.

whaleNets 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNets 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPacers 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	Pacersavg 62¢	$19.6K	$19.2K	-$309.29	54% 325-279 (604)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Netsavg 38.3¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$49.57	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 38.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$17.78
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 60.8¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$31.78
ComingBack	Pacersavg 60.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	-$32.5	61% 3965-2495 (6460)
HI hi774cCTR	Netsavg 38¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$19.09	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
TA takeormakeCTR	Netsavg 40.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$60.42	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
UP UpTheBlues	Pacersavg 60.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.22	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
VeryLucky888CTR	Netsavg 38.2¢	$1.4K	$812.27	+$24.27	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Pacersavg 61¢	$610	$619.76	-$15	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Netsavg 38.2¢	$516.14	$526.96	+$10.82	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Netsavg 38¢	$503.78	$510.41	+$6.63	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Netsavg 38¢	$301.91	$305.88	+$3.97	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
Painfulvoid	Pacersavg 59.9¢	$115.81	$119.89	+$3.15	63% 1767-1027 (2794)
funnydayCTR<$100	Netsavg 39¢	$78	$78	-$0	50% 3914-3899 (7813)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Netsavg 38.8¢	$55.68	$56.1	+$0.42	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pacersavg 61¢	$46.93	$46.93	-$0.78	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
RL RLWG<$100	Pacersavg 61¢	$24.39	$24.78	+$0.2	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
US User7429<$100	Pacersavg 60¢	$11.78	$12.17	+$0.29	55% 8413-6766 (15179)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740

Pacers

Invested

$19,553.04

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$309.29

Record

54%

325-279 (604)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$5,691.03

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$49.57

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Nets$2,882.0938.3¢+$17.78

Pacers$2,808.9460.8¢+$31.78

ComingBack

Pacers

Invested

$1,638.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$32.5

Record

61%

3965-2495 (6460)

hi774cCTR

Nets

Invested

$1,450.63

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$19.09

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

takeormakeCTR

Nets

Invested

$1,386.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$60.42

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

UpTheBlues

Pacers

Invested

$1,074.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.22

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nets

Invested

$1,354.81

Value

$812.27

PnL

+$24.27

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Pacers

Invested

$610

Value

$619.76

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

HerdoniaCTR

Nets

Invested

$516.14

Value

$526.96

PnL

+$10.82

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Nets

Invested

$503.78

Value

$510.41

PnL

+$6.63

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

SnakeBallCTR

Nets

Invested

$301.91

Value

$305.88

PnL

+$3.97

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Painfulvoid

Pacers

Invested

$115.81

Value

$119.89

PnL

+$3.15

Record

63%

1767-1027 (2794)

funnydayCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$78

Value

$78

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3914-3899 (7813)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$55.68

Value

$56.1

PnL

+$0.42

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pacers

Invested

$46.93

Value

$46.93

PnL

-$0.78

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

RLWG<$100

Pacers

Invested

$24.39

Value

$24.78

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

User7429<$100

Pacers

Invested

$11.78

Value

$12.17

PnL

+$0.29

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nets) and the top 1000 (12 on Pacers) disagree here.

whaleNets 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNets 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPacers 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.