Consensus PnL $167K · win rate 43% (80–105, n=185) · was PM monthly #778 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$166.8K
Record
80W / 105L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 185 settled
Batting Avg
71.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1465
Source
PM monthly #778
Record (90 d)
20/36 · 56%
Trades
787
Markets
187
Volume
$672.9K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsT1 $21K · now 47¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Bilibili Gaming)
Specialties
175 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 41¢- Esports
+14 pts
side won 56% of 41 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +25%
- NBA
+4 pts
side won 46% of 100 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +17%
- Crypto
+11 pts
side won 57% of 14 · avg entry 46¢
ROI −5%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 29% of 14 at an average 30¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 21% of 38)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 53% of 68)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 52% of 64)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 80% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.