LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

31 of 65 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (48%) · Bilibili Gaming at 54¢ · $1.2M held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming54¢T146¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 48%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2M

Combined PnL

$-12.2K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 53.5¢

-11% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

31 of 65 top traders (48%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming54%

T147%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming31 traders

Total Value$584.1K

Total Shares1,020,602

Combined PnL$-58.7K

T134 traders

Total Value$586.5K

Total Shares1,266,263

Combined PnL+$46.5K

Bilibili Gaming — 48%T1 — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Bilibili Gamingavg 63.6¢	$241.8K	$210.9K	$-30.9K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	T1avg 44.4¢	$179.8K	$186.3K	$-1.0K	50% 8704-8819 (17523)
vtcchampion52	Bilibili Gamingavg 56.1¢	$168.2K	$164.3K	$-3.9K	49% 1304-1349 (2653)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	T1avg 43.5¢	$93.0K	$98.3K	+$5.3K	54% 27-23 (50)
JU juice-fruitCTR	T1avg 30¢	$52.6K	$80.5K	+$28.0K	58% 61-45 (106)
FA fantasy7788CTR	T1avg 44.2¢	$67.4K	$70.1K	+$2.7K	41% 102-144 (246)
LI LinkE5	Bilibili Gamingavg 57¢	$44.3K	$41.6K	$-2.7K	47% 770-855 (1625)
LL lllllllIlll	Bilibili Gamingavg 55.5¢	$27.8K	$26.8K	$-1.0K	54% 331-279 (610)
AnjunCTR	T1avg 43.5¢	$29.0K	$22.4K	+$1.1K	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
DS dsasdaas	Bilibili Gamingavg 71¢	$28.4K	$21.4K	$-7.0K	63% 305-176 (481)
CO CosplayGaoJinCTR	T1avg 45.2¢	$20.6K	$20.9K	+$1.1K	42% 64-90 (154)
KJ kjhgkltivtvriur	Bilibili Gamingavg 56¢	$20.0K	$19.1K	-$892.82	— 6-4 (10)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR	T1avg 43.8¢	$17.6K	$18.7K	+$1.1K	67% 56-27 (83)
SI SineNooneEI	Bilibili Gamingavg 56¢	$19.1K	$18.2K	-$852.25	53% 982-856 (1838)
nigiri99CTR	T1avg 38.3¢	$13.9K	$16.0K	+$2.3K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
WordleAddictCTR	T1avg 43¢	$30.0K	$13.9K	+$1.0K	60% 1028-697 (1725)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	T1avg 43¢	$12.9K	$13.9K	+$1.0K	51% 6917-6562 (13479)
NO Novelty8	Bilibili Gamingavg 56¢	$12.9K	$12.4K	-$577.5	71% 683-279 (962)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	T1avg 44¢	$11.0K	$11.3K	+$363.38	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
└ T1 leg	T1avg 44¢	$8.5K	$9.0K	+$484.87
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 56.2¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$121.49
QI qiu3	Bilibili Gamingavg 56¢	$9.8K	$9.3K	-$436.81	60% 53-36 (89)
StreamLIVECTR	T1avg 43.8¢	$8.6K	$9.1K	+$431.92	55% 1379-1124 (2503)
BB Bb2de66666	Bilibili Gamingavg 71.8¢	$11.3K	$8.5K	$-2.8K	42% 51-71 (122)
LI lightningboltsARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 73.5¢	$10.1K	$8.2K	$-1.9K	57% 614-469 (1083)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 73.5¢	$6.7K	$4.8K	$-1.8K
└ T1 leg	T1avg 47¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$39.06
HO Hongweiqian	Bilibili Gamingavg 58.2¢	$8.7K	$8.1K	-$525	49% 298-307 (605)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	T1avg 35.1¢	$6.2K	$7.2K	+$1.0K	53% 15513-13750 (29263)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$241,759.02

Value

$210.9K

PnL

$-30.9K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Invested

$179,776.71

Value

$186.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

8704-8819 (17523)

vtcchampion52

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$168,200.69

Value

$164.3K

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

49%

1304-1349 (2653)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

Invested

$93,002.97

Value

$98.3K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

54%

27-23 (50)

juice-fruitCTR

Invested

$52,558.23

Value

$80.5K

PnL

+$28.0K

Record

58%

61-45 (106)

fantasy7788CTR

Invested

$67,370.14

Value

$70.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

41%

102-144 (246)

LinkE5

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$44,332.81

Value

$41.6K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

47%

770-855 (1625)

lllllllIlll

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$27,750

Value

$26.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

331-279 (610)

AnjunCTR

Invested

$28,999.61

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

dsasdaas

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$28,404

Value

$21.4K

PnL

$-7.0K

Record

63%

305-176 (481)

CosplayGaoJinCTR

Invested

$20,580.56

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

42%

64-90 (154)

kjhgkltivtvriur

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$19,999.96

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$892.82

Record

—

6-4 (10)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR

Invested

$17,628.88

Value

$18.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

67%

56-27 (83)

SineNooneEI

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$19,090.4

Value

$18.2K

PnL

-$852.25

Record

53%

982-856 (1838)

nigiri99CTR

Invested

$13,937.85

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

WordleAddictCTR

Invested

$29,999.78

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

60%

1028-697 (1725)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Invested

$12,899.84

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

6917-6562 (13479)

Novelty8

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$12,936

Value

$12.4K

PnL

-$577.5

Record

71%

683-279 (962)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$10,972.36

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$363.38

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

Both legs:

T1$8,483.944¢+$484.87

Bilibili Gaming$2,488.4656.2¢-$121.49

qiu3

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$9,785

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$436.81

Record

60%

53-36 (89)

StreamLIVECTR

Invested

$8,646.59

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$431.92

Record

55%

1379-1124 (2503)

Bb2de66666

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$11,269.85

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

42%

51-71 (122)

lightningboltsARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$10,097.32

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

57%

614-469 (1083)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$6,657.8373.5¢$-1.8K

T1$3,439.4947¢-$39.06

Hongweiqian

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$8,733.83

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$525

Record

49%

298-307 (605)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$6,201.77

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

31 of 65 top traders (48%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.