Consensus PnL $468K · win rate 70% (805–350, n=1155) · hand-picked wallet · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$467.9K
Record
805W / 350L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 1155 settled
Batting Avg
53.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#739
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
8,847
Markets
1,749
Volume
$38.7M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $137K · now 77¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
Specialties
1,185 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 59¢- Politics
+7 pts
side won 70% of 160 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 78% of 148 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +2%
- Entertainment
+8 pts
side won 76% of 87 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 44% of 151 at an average 45¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 11% of 366)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 50% of 123)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 59% of 121)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 97% of 575)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.