Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (23%) · No at 71¢ · $69K held · ended Nov 1

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 23%

Total Value

$69.4K

Combined PnL

$770.29

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 70.5¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$50.7K

Total Shares76,173

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares58,729

Combined PnL$-2.4K

No — 23%Yes — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Noavg 62.8¢	$47.1K	$49.9K	+$3.1K	49% 110-116 (226)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$11.5K	$9.5K	$-1.2K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$7.9K	$7.1K	-$899.13	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 37.6¢	$996.88	$889	-$107.88	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65.5¢	$702.98	$713.47	+$10.49	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$500	$452.7	-$47.3	51% 3950-3850 (7800)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$445.95	$412.16	-$33.78	49% 3939-4125 (8064)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 39.4¢	$191.62	$162.81	-$28.81	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$186.04	$153.29	-$32.75	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
heyboy800<$100	Noavg 70¢	$70	$69	-$1	61% 971-608 (1579)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$66	$63	-$3	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$55.64	$56.7	+$1.06	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$21.6	$9	-$2.7	58% 42698-31074 (73772)

theowalcott

Invested

$47,120.88

Value

$49.9K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

49%

110-116 (226)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,460.3

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,904.73

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$899.13

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$996.88

Value

$889

PnL

-$107.88

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$702.98

Value

$713.47

PnL

+$10.49

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$452.7

PnL

-$47.3

Record

51%

3950-3850 (7800)

NotradecopyCTR

Yes

Invested

$445.95

Value

$412.16

PnL

-$33.78

Record

49%

3939-4125 (8064)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$191.62

Value

$162.81

PnL

-$28.81

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$186.04

Value

$153.29

PnL

-$32.75

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

heyboy800<$100

Invested

$70

Value

$69

PnL

-$1

Record

61%

971-608 (1579)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66

Value

$63

PnL

-$3

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.64

Value

$56.7

PnL

+$1.06

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.6

Value

PnL

-$2.7

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.