Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 81% (286–67, n=353) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.3K
Record
286W / 67L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 353 settled
Batting Avg
76.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#407
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
20,431
Markets
656
Volume
$654.3K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $846 · now 90¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No $117 · now 90¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes $93 · now 93¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?No $51 · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
463 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 80¢- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 86% of 311 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +2%
- Other Sports
+13 pts
side won 68% of 19 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+10 pts
side won 88% of 16 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 86% of 14 at an average 92¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 6% of 34)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 45% of 22)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 50% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 79%(won 95% of 367)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.