US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 88¢ · $69K held · ends Dec 1
🔬
Research candidate
No
19
No 74%
$69.1K
-$651.69
90.4¢ → 87.5¢
-3% since entry · 14 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 88%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
1309h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hopedieslast | Noavg 88.4¢ | $25.4K | $25.2K | -$272.83 | 59% 118-81 (199) |
PI pilimili | Noavg 93.1¢ | $21.9K | $21.1K | -$380.57 | 62% 151-91 (242) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Noavg 90.3¢ | $13.8K | $13.8K | +$189.84 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
TR Trump2028 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$4.78 | 82% 402-89 (491) |
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 85.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$57.57 | 36% 2086-3721 (5807) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 92.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$15.01 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 90¢ | $758.24 | $715.81 | +$8.98 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
 tetrase | Noavg 90¢ | $673.34 | $673.34 | +$11.22 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 MEPPCTR | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $885.88 | $636.44 | -$249.44 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 89.7¢ | $3.5K | $612.77 | +$55.6 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $470 | $467.5 | -$2.5 | 40% 704-1062 (1766) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 91.3¢ | $424.02 | $270.12 | -$10.43 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $250 | $193.18 | -$56.82 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
PU PutsOnPeace | Noavg 89¢ | $178 | $180 | +$5 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 GollumGekkoCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $140.45 | $149.23 | +$8.78 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
 Gluckyklucky | Noavg 90.1¢ | $114.21 | $117.28 | +$3.07 | 82% 458-103 (561) |
 TheKinginYellow | Noavg 90¢ | $100 | $100 | +$1.67 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $54.9 | $53.74 | -$1.16 | 56% 1213-967 (2180) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $19.33 | $19.44 | +$0.11 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
Invested
$25,447.24
Value
$25.2K
PnL
-$272.83
Record
59%
118-81 (199)
Invested
$21,854.7
Value
$21.1K
PnL
-$380.57
Record
62%
151-91 (242)
Invested
$13,790.23
Value
$13.8K
PnL
+$189.84
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
Invested
$1,900.13
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$4.78
Record
82%
402-89 (491)
Invested
$1,480.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$57.57
Record
36%
2086-3721 (5807)
Parz1vaIInvested
$1,513.57
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$15.01
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Invested
$758.24
Value
$715.81
PnL
+$8.98
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
tetraseInvested
$673.34
Value
$673.34
PnL
+$11.22
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
MEPPCTRInvested
$885.88
Value
$636.44
PnL
-$249.44
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$3,520.28
Value
$612.77
PnL
+$55.6
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$470
Value
$467.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
40%
704-1062 (1766)
Invested
$424.02
Value
$270.12
PnL
-$10.43
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
cambridgeisaacCTRInvested
$250
Value
$193.18
PnL
-$56.82
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$178
Value
$180
PnL
+$5
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
GollumGekkoCTRInvested
$140.45
Value
$149.23
PnL
+$8.78
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
GluckykluckyInvested
$114.21
Value
$117.28
PnL
+$3.07
Record
82%
458-103 (561)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$100
Value
$100
PnL
+$1.67
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$54.9
Value
$53.74
PnL
-$1.16
Record
56%
1213-967 (2180)
Invested
$19.33
Value
$19.44
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hopedieslast
No — $25.2K
pilimili
No — $21.1K
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
No — $13.8K
Trump2028
No — $1.9K
HerrieDavis
No — $1.5K
Parz1vaI
No — $1.5K
stupid22
No — $715.81
tetrase
No — $673.34
MEPP
CTRYes — $636.44
PaddyAlpha
No — $612.77