Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 94¢ · $21K held · ends Dec 31

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

$261.92

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 94¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares21,913

Combined PnL+$264.42

Yes1 trader

Total Value$32.5

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$2.5

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

1136h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 92¢	$9.2K	$9.5K	+$150	72% 257-102 (359)
MisTKy	Noavg 93¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$31.17	71% 568-236 (804)
DonationsReceiver	Noavg 90¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$74.33	60% 245-160 (405)
57 57284910	Noavg 94¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$7.52	100% 23-0 (23)
Donny.T	Noavg 91.8¢	$710.7	$722.94	+$12.24	72% 484-187 (671)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 94.5¢	$579.27	$573.32	-$5.95	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 92¢	$386.14	$398.73	+$6.3	88% 212-28 (240)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 91.8¢	$196.51	$203.3	+$3.58	66% 1107-565 (1672)
Gluckyklucky<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$51.2	$51.47	+$0.27	82% 458-103 (561)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$35	$32.5	-$2.5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)

SlenderMan

Invested

$9,200

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$150

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

MisTKy

Invested

$5,891.04

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$31.17

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

DonationsReceiver

Invested

$1,943.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$74.33

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

57284910

Invested

$1,412.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$7.52

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

Donny.T

Invested

$710.7

Value

$722.94

PnL

+$12.24

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$579.27

Value

$573.32

PnL

-$5.95

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$386.14

Value

$398.73

PnL

+$6.3

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$196.51

Value

$203.3

PnL

+$3.58

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Gluckyklucky<$100

Invested

$51.2

Value

$51.47

PnL

+$0.27

Record

82%

458-103 (561)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35

Value

$32.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

1136h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.