Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

21 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (66%) · No at 90¢ · $260K held · ends Dec 31

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 66%

Total Value

$259.7K

Combined PnL

$17.1K

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 89.5¢

+10% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 90%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$249.1K

Total Shares279,631

Combined PnL+$22.1K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares97,320

Combined PnL$-5.0K

No — 66%Yes — 34%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4051h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

66% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 83% · 12

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 61% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000No 68% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hopedieslast	Noavg 83.2¢	$60.3K	$64.5K	+$4.5K	59% 118-81 (199)
FL flawfence	Noavg 82.2¢	$33.0K	$35.9K	+$2.9K	46% 271-319 (590)
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 83.3¢	$31.4K	$33.5K	+$2.3K	72% 257-102 (359)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 74.6¢	$26.3K	$31.2K	+$5.2K	66% 487-255 (742)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 83.6¢	$23.8K	$25.5K	+$1.6K	89% 4653-547 (5200)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 82.8¢	$18.1K	$19.4K	+$1.5K	80% 168-42 (210)
JO JoeBlack01	Noavg 78.7¢	$9.9K	$11.3K	+$1.4K	60% 474-313 (787)
0xheavy888	Noavg 86¢	$8.6K	$8.9K	+$350	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 17.4¢	$9.8K	$6.2K	$-3.3K	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 65¢	$3.2K	$4.4K	+$1.2K	88% 212-28 (240)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 81¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$260.89	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
Roflan-ludoman	Noavg 88¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$37.5	62% 649-396 (1045)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Yesavg 13.4¢	$2.8K	$2.2K	-$602.64	63% 353-204 (557)
MEPP	Noavg 78.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$76.34	64% 633-352 (985)
BloodyMummer	Noavg 76.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$259.99	77% 557-167 (724)
tja	Noavg 83¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$103.67	73% 867-323 (1190)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 80¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$131.48	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
pup1CTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$299.98	46% 1978-2361 (4339)
NiceDuckBro	Noavg 87¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$28.75	65% 335-177 (512)
Gluckyklucky	Noavg 82.6¢	$823.26	$845.51	+$22.25	82% 458-103 (561)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 76.6¢	$739.18	$729.27	+$117.57	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
bosshogCTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$494.84	$388.8	-$106.03	72% 1052-415 (1467)
TheKinginYellowCTR	Yesavg 31.2¢	$904	$319	-$599.48	68% 830-398 (1228)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 12.2¢	$220	$220	+$0	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 18.7¢	$130	$110	-$20	50% 970-988 (1958)

hopedieslast

Invested

$60,299.72

Value

$64.5K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

flawfence

Invested

$32,954.1

Value

$35.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

SlenderMan

Invested

$31,364.25

Value

$33.5K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$26,260.03

Value

$31.2K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

nonkenny90

Invested

$23,844.64

Value

$25.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

TerreMoto

Invested

$18,091

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

JoeBlack01

Invested

$9,931.4

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

0xheavy888

Invested

$8,599.99

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$350

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,843.57

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$3,249.96

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$2,817.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$260.89

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

Roflan-ludoman

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$37.5

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,763.22

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$602.64

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

MEPP

Invested

$1,724.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$76.34

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

BloodyMummer

Invested

$1,529.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$259.99

Record

77%

557-167 (724)

tja

Invested

$1,323.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$103.67

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$1,237.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$131.48

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

pup1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$299.98

Record

46%

1978-2361 (4339)

NiceDuckBro

Invested

$1,000.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$28.75

Record

65%

335-177 (512)

Gluckyklucky

Invested

$823.26

Value

$845.51

PnL

+$22.25

Record

82%

458-103 (561)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$739.18

Value

$729.27

PnL

+$117.57

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

bosshogCTR

Yes

Invested

$494.84

Value

$388.8

PnL

-$106.03

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

TheKinginYellowCTR

Yes

Invested

$904

Value

$319

PnL

-$599.48

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$220

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$110

PnL

-$20

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 90%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 32 top traders (66%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Late

4051h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

66% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 83% · 12

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 61% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000No 68% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.