Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 98¢ · $8K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$48.23

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 98¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,439

Combined PnL+$151.28

Yes6 traders

Total Value$943.62

Total Shares45,265

Combined PnL-$199.51

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 95.9¢	$7.1K	$7.3K	+$151.13	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$647.73	$556.4	-$91.33	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$310.99	$248.01	-$62.98	50% 1234-1233 (2467)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$55.57	$65.54	-$11.86	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$7.28	$37.06	-$16.25	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$24.09	$24.1	+$0.01	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$4.81	$21.15	-$9.87	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$9.46	$15.46	-$7.21	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$4.76	$4.9	+$0.14	73% 41-15 (56)

Nooserac

Invested

$7,106.19

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$151.13

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$647.73

Value

$556.4

PnL

-$91.33

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Yes

Invested

$310.99

Value

$248.01

PnL

-$62.98

Record

50%

1234-1233 (2467)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.57

Value

$65.54

PnL

-$11.86

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.28

Value

$37.06

PnL

-$16.25

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.09

Value

$24.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.81

Value

$21.15

PnL

-$9.87

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.46

Value

$15.46

PnL

-$7.21

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.14

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.