Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 24¢ · $61K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$61.2K

Combined PnL

$8.9K

Smart Money Entry

20.1¢ → 23.5¢

+17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$61.0K

Total Shares254,734

Combined PnL+$8.9K

No1 trader

Total Value$137.24

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$7.18

Yes — 92%No — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$20.1K	$23.5K	+$3.4K	47% 217-240 (457)
AA aaabbbCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$9.0K	$10.8K	+$1.8K	50% 447-446 (893)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 18.1¢	$6.7K	$8.9K	+$2.0K	33% 42-86 (128)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$7.6K	$8.1K	+$504.55	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
EdZacharyCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$4.2K	$4.6K	+$286.01	40% 94-142 (236)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$477.11	43% 561-738 (1299)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$10.48	$418.58	+$354.24	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$185	$204	+$14.75	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
Gr33d	Noavg 80.5¢	$144.42	$137.24	-$7.18	80% 2709-698 (3407)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$74.55	$85.2	+$8.88	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
GO Gourmet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.31	$2.64	+$0.17	47% 163-187 (350)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$0.54	$0.55	+$0.01	50% 697-693 (1390)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$20,088.8

Value

$23.5K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

aaabbbCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,037.3

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,742.7

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,568.31

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$504.55

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

EdZacharyCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,194.79

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$286.01

Record

40%

94-142 (236)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,992.13

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$477.11

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$10.48

Value

$418.58

PnL

+$354.24

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$185

Value

$204

PnL

+$14.75

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

Gr33d

Invested

$144.42

Value

$137.24

PnL

-$7.18

Record

80%

2709-698 (3407)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.55

Value

$85.2

PnL

+$8.88

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

Gourmet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$0.17

Record

47%

163-187 (350)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.