Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$243.78

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 1.1¢

+26% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$944.09

Total Shares89,914

Combined PnL+$243.5

No3 traders

Total Value$83.71

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.28

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$304.63	$460.28	+$182.1	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$306.58	$277.9	-$2.33	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$46.87	$89.73	+$42.85	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
NE neymar1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$35	$73.5	+$38.53	30% 324-771 (1095)
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$55	$54.42	-$0.08	48% 175-192 (367)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$23.98	$24.34	+$0.36	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$53.55	$21	+$21	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yes	$13.7	$13.7	-$25.85	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$6.41	$6.41	-$12.08	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.95	-$0	73% 41-15 (56)
GO Gourmet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.2	$1.05	-$0.15	47% 163-187 (350)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.31	$0.53	-$0.58	53% 906-789 (1695)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$304.63

Value

$460.28

PnL

+$182.1

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$306.58

Value

$277.9

PnL

-$2.33

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.87

Value

$89.73

PnL

+$42.85

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

neymar1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35

Value

$73.5

PnL

+$38.53

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

Diabolical-Prize<$100

Invested

$55

Value

$54.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

175-192 (367)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$23.98

Value

$24.34

PnL

+$0.36

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.55

Value

$21

PnL

+$21

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.7

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$25.85

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$12.08

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Gourmet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

163-187 (350)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4550.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

4650.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.