Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 86¢ · $24K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$24.4K

Combined PnL

$8.9K

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 85.9¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares12,808

Combined PnL-$563.88

Yes12 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares94,638

Combined PnL+$9.4K

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4859h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

60 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 90.2¢	$11.5K	$11.0K	-$560.87	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.9K	$9.8K	+$6.9K	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$455.15	$1.2K	+$737.52	39% 397-627 (1024)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$168	$568	+$398.01	47% 217-240 (457)
bosshogCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$117.77	$548.3	+$430.53	72% 1052-415 (1467)
0X 0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$79.21	$302.94	+$223.73	52% 747-702 (1449)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$22.02	$261.78	+$199.84	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$65.36	$235.87	+$169.68	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$30.66	$222.41	+$154.9	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$99.69	$196.73	+$97.04	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 4.3¢	$12.64	$129.69	+$98.99	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 96¢	$23.62	$21.12	-$2.5	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$196.08	$9.19	+$12.32	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$4.81	$4.29	-$0.51	73% 41-15 (56)
GO Gourmet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.05	$3.55	+$2.49	47% 163-187 (350)

Nooserac

Invested

$11,531.04

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$560.87

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,859.53

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$455.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$737.52

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$168

Value

$568

PnL

+$398.01

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

bosshogCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.77

Value

$548.3

PnL

+$430.53

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR

Yes

Invested

$79.21

Value

$302.94

PnL

+$223.73

Record

52%

747-702 (1449)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$22.02

Value

$261.78

PnL

+$199.84

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$65.36

Value

$235.87

PnL

+$169.68

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$30.66

Value

$222.41

PnL

+$154.9

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$99.69

Value

$196.73

PnL

+$97.04

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.64

Value

$129.69

PnL

+$98.99

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$23.62

Value

$21.12

PnL

-$2.5

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.08

Value

$9.19

PnL

+$12.32

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.51

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Gourmet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$2.49

Record

47%

163-187 (350)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4859h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

60 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.4%

85.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.