Consensus PnL $136K · win rate 84% (139–26, n=165) · hand-picked wallet · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$136.2K
Record
139W / 26L
Win Rate
84.0%
of 165 settled
Batting Avg
24.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#358
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
24,847
Markets
397
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 13 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?No $111K · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?No $86K · now 99¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?No $54K · now 99¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?No $30K · now 99¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 98¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?No $10K · now 99¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?No $6.9K · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?No $5.8K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
Specialties
368 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 93¢- Economy
+8 pts
side won 54% of 13 · avg entry 46¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 93% of 261 at an average 95¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 0% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 44% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 95%(won 95% of 351)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.