Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $74K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$73.6K
$-2.8K
91.3¢ → 99.2¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
4835h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JanAMEX | Noavg 88.8¢ | $48.3K | $54.0K | +$5.7K | 88% 321-44 (365) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $14.8K | $14.9K | +$43.79 | 54% 786-659 (1445) |
CH chongchongpanda | Noavg 98.3¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$33.16 | 76% 16-5 (21) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 90¢ | $900 | $991.5 | +$91.5 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.95 | +$0.02 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $21.9K | $1.34 | $-8.7K | 52% 2726-2553 (5279) |
Invested
$48,270.41
Value
$54.0K
PnL
+$5.7K
Record
88%
321-44 (365)
Invested
$14,819.63
Value
$14.9K
PnL
+$43.79
Record
54%
786-659 (1445)
Invested
$3,677.94
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$33.16
Record
76%
16-5 (21)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$900
Value
$991.5
PnL
+$91.5
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
justdanceCTRInvested
$21,942.96
Value
$1.34
PnL
$-8.7K
Record
52%
2726-2553 (5279)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.