Consensus PnL $1.8K · win rate 67% (1226–600, n=1826) · PM monthly #463 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.8K
Record
1226W / 600L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 1826 settled
Batting Avg
45.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#838
Source
PM monthly #463
Trades
1,875
Markets
2,595
Volume
$14.3M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 5 on the consensus side (80%)- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AHeroic $15K · now 62¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (56% of 16)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 15¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsBilibili Gaming $818 · now 59¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance PlayoffsBESTIA $720 · now 0¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (100 Thieves)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $330 · now 8¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
Specialties
1,762 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 52¢- MLB
+22 pts
side won 70% of 30 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +1%
- Esports
+3 pts
side won 55% of 1625 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +2%
- MMA
+14 pts
side won 52% of 21 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +27%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 50% of 54 at an average 52¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 30% of 203)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 44% of 593)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 61% of 692)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 81% of 274)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.