Consensus PnL -$7.6K · win rate 58% (13705–9781, n=23486) · was PM monthly #995 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-7.6K
Record
13705W / 9781L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 23486 settled
Batting Avg
19.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1266
Source
PM monthly #995
Trades
4,367
Markets
32,797
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 9 on the consensus side (44%)- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ETUp $43 · now 100¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETDown $35 · now 100¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (84% of 25)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ETUp $29 · now 52¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ETDown $26 · now 100¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETDown $17 · now 0¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (Up)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ETUp $10 · now 0¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Down)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ETDown $5 · now 100¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 1?Yes $3 · now 57¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
3,613 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 70¢- Crypto
+30 pts
side won 100% of 3613 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +29%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 100% of 114)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 100% of 448)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 817)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 100% of 2234)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.