Consensus PnL $222K · win rate 57% (249–191, n=440) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$222.4K
Record
249W / 191L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 440 settled
Batting Avg
72.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1339
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
576
Markets
666
Volume
$3.4M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 23¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
474 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 50¢- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 60% of 120 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +22%
- Politics
+11 pts
side won 57% of 44 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 44% of 25 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 33% of 30 at an average 44¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 11% of 165)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 54% of 54)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 73% of 90)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 90% of 165)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.