Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.5K
$2.0K
67¢ → 81.5¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
4879h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
292 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 72.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$182.58 | 68% 348-162 (510) |
LI Liquidifier | No | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$1.6K | 50% 1143-1141 (2284) |
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985 | Noavg 23¢ | $78.72 | $277.25 | +$198.52 | 64% 154-88 (242) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 72.9¢ | $94.9 | $101.87 | +$10.99 | 77% 11966-3647 (15613) |
18 1881aaCTR<$100 | Yes | $25.49 | $25.49 | -$58.78 | 71% 381-155 (536) |
alanhuttonInvested
$1,972.06
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$182.58
Record
68%
348-162 (510)
Invested
$1,924.23
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
50%
1143-1141 (2284)
Invested
$78.72
Value
$277.25
PnL
+$198.52
Record
64%
154-88 (242)
Invested
$94.9
Value
$101.87
PnL
+$10.99
Record
77%
11966-3647 (15613)
Invested
$25.49
Value
$25.49
PnL
-$58.78
Record
71%
381-155 (536)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.