Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 98¢ · $247K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
15
No 93%
$246.6K
$11.3K
91.6¢ → 98¢
+7% since entry · 14 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
14 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 92.9¢ | $302.4K | $220.3K | +$7.1K | 81% 421-101 (522) |
 esports095 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $5.0K | $5.4K | +$384.55 | 58% 651-467 (1118) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 79¢ | $4.0K | $4.9K | +$937.5 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
 solwizzo-onX | Noavg 59.2¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$58 | 67% 347-174 (521) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 90.9¢ | $3.5K | $3.8K | +$382.46 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$4.12 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 47.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | +$2.5K | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
LA Lasting-Dessert | Noavg 87¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$159.33 | 89% 563-67 (630) |
 Talophex | Noavg 93.6¢ | $973.51 | $979.01 | +$5.5 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 BabyIBeenWatchingYou | Noavg 88¢ | $312.48 | $347.83 | +$35.35 | 65% 966-523 (1489) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 87.6¢ | $212.41 | $237.51 | +$25.21 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 91¢ | $217.71 | $234.22 | +$16.15 | 85% 312-57 (369) |
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 85¢ | $178.23 | $200.28 | +$24.75 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
PU PutsOnPeace | Noavg 91¢ | $182 | $195.8 | +$13.5 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 66¢ | $330 | $10.25 | -$318.75 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$302,423.14
Value
$220.3K
PnL
+$7.1K
Record
81%
421-101 (522)
esports095Invested
$5,026.1
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$384.55
Record
58%
651-467 (1118)
Invested
$3,950
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$937.5
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
solwizzo-onXInvested
$3,858
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$58
Record
67%
347-174 (521)
Invested
$3,457.34
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$382.46
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$2,384.56
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$4.12
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$2,415.48
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$1,289.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$159.33
Record
89%
563-67 (630)
TalophexInvested
$973.51
Value
$979.01
PnL
+$5.5
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
BabyIBeenWatchingYouInvested
$312.48
Value
$347.83
PnL
+$35.35
Record
65%
966-523 (1489)
Invested
$212.41
Value
$237.51
PnL
+$25.21
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
SeutervoinenInvested
$217.71
Value
$234.22
PnL
+$16.15
Record
85%
312-57 (369)
Invested
$178.23
Value
$200.28
PnL
+$24.75
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
Invested
$182
Value
$195.8
PnL
+$13.5
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$330
Value
$10.25
PnL
-$318.75
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.