Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 42¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$8.7K
-$73.87
72.5¢ → 42¢
-42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
340h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vacoolaaaCTR | Yesavg 93¢ | $4.6K | $2.6K | $-2.4K | 68% 124-59 (183) |
OD odsowner | Noavg 49.4¢ | $1.9K | $2.3K | +$336.87 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
LI Liquidifier | Noavg 4¢ | $148.29 | $2.1K | +$2.0K | 50% 1113-1128 (2241) |
 gatonekkiCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $860 | $1.0K | +$50 | 63% 22-13 (35) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $492.05 | $529.9 | +$37.85 | 45% 13215-16086 (29301) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR | Yesavg 68.9¢ | $324.31 | $136.21 | -$87.18 | 57% 17218-12981 (30199) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $537.56 | $75 | -$13.32 | 54% 26594-22226 (48820) |
vacoolaaaCTRInvested
$4,647.3
Value
$2.6K
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
68%
124-59 (183)
Invested
$1,940.94
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$336.87
Record
55%
153-127 (280)
Invested
$148.29
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
50%
1113-1128 (2241)
gatonekkiCTRInvested
$860
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$50
Record
63%
22-13 (35)
Invested
$492.05
Value
$529.9
PnL
+$37.85
Record
45%
13215-16086 (29301)
Invested
$324.31
Value
$136.21
PnL
-$87.18
Record
57%
17218-12981 (30199)
balthazarCTRInvested
$537.56
Value
$75
PnL
-$13.32
Record
54%
26594-22226 (48820)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.