Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 16 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (84%) · Yes at 12¢ · $61K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 84%

Total Value

$61.0K

Combined PnL

$-39.4K

Smart Money Entry

18.8¢ → 11.5¢

-39% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$60.4K

Total Shares546,153

Combined PnL$-39.4K

No3 traders

Total Value$623.77

Total Shares705

Combined PnL+$80.81

Yes — 84%No — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

53 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

84% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BurstedBubbleCTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$40.9K	$25.3K	$-14.4K	— 4-5 (9)
Fuentes31CTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$36.6K	$20.6K	$-16.0K	53% 663-586 (1249)
ST StudentMoneyCTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$10.9K	$5.6K	$-5.3K	71% 828-343 (1171)
bisoussCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$7.2K	$4.8K	$-2.3K	— 2-12 (14)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$516.81	46% 271-319 (590)
nicoco89CTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$796.81	$588.68	-$208.13	65% 1075-583 (1658)
CO cowcat	Noavg 75¢	$375	$442.5	+$67.5	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
4751346	Noavg 82¢	$164	$177	+$13	72% 1257-483 (1740)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$8.13	$152.18	-$181.87	55% 463-373 (836)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yes	$148.63	$148.63	-$137.09	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$220	$110	-$110	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
TBill1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$285	$110	-$175	45% 154-188 (342)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$2.09	$81.83	+$79.74	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
LO LongAndWindingRoadCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$144.39	$63.51	-$77.99	61% 70-44 (114)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$57.71	$31.79	-$25.92	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$19.1	$26.38	+$7.28	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$16.5	$16.5	+$16.08	7% 14-187 (201)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100	Noavg 82¢	$3.96	$4.27	+$0.31	69% 156-69 (225)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.17	$0.66	+$0.69	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

BurstedBubbleCTR

Yes

Invested

$40,875.52

Value

$25.3K

PnL

$-14.4K

Record

—

4-5 (9)

Fuentes31CTR

Yes

Invested

$36,602.67

Value

$20.6K

PnL

$-16.0K

Record

53%

663-586 (1249)

StudentMoneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,914.26

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

71%

828-343 (1171)

bisoussCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,163.38

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

—

2-12 (14)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,310.16

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$516.81

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

nicoco89CTR

Yes

Invested

$796.81

Value

$588.68

PnL

-$208.13

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

cowcat

Invested

$375

Value

$442.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

4751346

Invested

$164

Value

$177

PnL

+$13

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.13

Value

$152.18

PnL

-$181.87

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.63

Value

$148.63

PnL

-$137.09

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$110

PnL

-$110

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

TBill1CTR

Yes

Invested

$285

Value

$110

PnL

-$175

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$81.83

PnL

+$79.74

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

LongAndWindingRoadCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.39

Value

$63.51

PnL

-$77.99

Record

61%

70-44 (114)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.71

Value

$31.79

PnL

-$25.92

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.1

Value

$26.38

PnL

+$7.28

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$16.08

Record

14-187 (201)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.31

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.69

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

53 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

84% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 93% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.9%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$672.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

772.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.