Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

35 of 60 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 68¢ · $303K held · ends Nov 4

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$303.0K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 67.5¢

+1% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

35 of 60 top traders (58%)25 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes35 traders

Total Value$250.0K

Total Shares371,892

Combined PnL+$3.1K

No25 traders

Total Value$53.0K

Total Shares165,110

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 24

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 45

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlavaUkraini	Yesavg 71.9¢	$56.4K	$53.0K	$-3.4K	71% 160-66 (226)
0X 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8	Yesavg 70¢	$430.36	$43.5K	-$792.32	71% 60-24 (84)
11 11122CTR	Noavg 34.5¢	$21.5K	$20.6K	-$875.52	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
Kettle	Yesavg 64¢	$19.2K	$20.1K	+$1.1K	53% 241-218 (459)
SK skibabiba	Yesavg 66¢	$19.8K	$20.1K	+$450.79	87% 95-14 (109)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 64.8¢	$17.1K	$17.8K	+$698.03	61% 203-132 (335)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Yesavg 68¢	$13.6K	$13.5K	-$100	53% 915-808 (1723)
WordleAddict	Yesavg 59.6¢	$9.9K	$11.1K	+$1.3K	61% 941-614 (1555)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 65.3¢	$10.1K	$10.5K	+$337.94	38% 20-32 (52)
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 30.3¢	$7.8K	$8.4K	+$627.41	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 66¢	$7.7K	$7.2K	+$166.94	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 64¢	$5.8K	$6.2K	+$322.41	58% 182-132 (314)
ME Melody626CTR	Noavg 32¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$97.93	58% 705-521 (1226)
IC ic4creamCTR	Noavg 33.8¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$209.4	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
mr.ozi	Yesavg 64¢	$4.8K	$5.1K	+$262.51	68% 1239-582 (1821)
WA wan123	Yesavg 52¢	$3.8K	$4.9K	+$1.1K	39% 196-304 (500)
LiquidatedDegen	Yesavg 59.9¢	$4.5K	$4.9K	+$427.76	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 38.7¢	$5.5K	$4.6K	-$879.3	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 64.8¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	+$138.88	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
BR brte	Yesavg 68¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$30	— 10-6 (16)
The-Joker	Yesavg 70¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$125	68% 1507-701 (2208)
Warren-Buffett	Yesavg 59¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$425	65% 862-465 (1327)
MO Monopoly_Money	Yesavg 59¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$425	63% 159-95 (254)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 65¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$119	36% 190-333 (523)
KE KevindotoCTR	Noavg 35¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$250	80% 437-110 (547)

SlavaUkraini

Yes

Invested

$56,442.95

Value

$53.0K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8

Yes

Invested

$430.36

Value

$43.5K

PnL

-$792.32

Record

71%

60-24 (84)

11122CTR

Invested

$21,523.37

Value

$20.6K

PnL

-$875.52

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Kettle

Yes

Invested

$19,200

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

241-218 (459)

skibabiba

Yes

Invested

$19,799.98

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$450.79

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$17,083.94

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$698.03

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Yes

Invested

$13,599.99

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

WordleAddict

Yes

Invested

$9,870.98

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$10,119.92

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$337.94

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$7,766.19

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$627.41

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$7,676.18

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$166.94

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$5,829.98

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$322.41

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

Melody626CTR

Invested

$5,749.74

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$97.93

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

ic4creamCTR

Invested

$5,283.63

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$209.4

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

mr.ozi

Yes

Invested

$4,800.01

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$262.51

Record

68%

1239-582 (1821)

wan123

Yes

Invested

$3,789.95

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

LiquidatedDegen

Yes

Invested

$4,463.49

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$427.76

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$5,496.71

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$879.3

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$4,295.19

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$138.88

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

brte

Yes

Invested

$4,080

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$30

Record

—

10-6 (16)

The-Joker

Yes

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$125

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

Warren-Buffett

Yes

Invested

$2,950

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$425

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

Monopoly_Money

Yes

Invested

$2,948.56

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$425

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Yes

Invested

$3,093.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$119

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

KevindotoCTR

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$250

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

35 of 60 top traders (58%)25 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 24

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 45

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.4%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.