Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 90¢ · $166K held · ends Dec 31

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$166.0K

Combined PnL

$73.2K

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 89.5¢

+113% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$165.2K

Total Shares184,603

Combined PnL+$74.3K

No4 traders

Total Value$744.65

Total Shares7,092

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

141 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RU russell110320	Yesavg 36.8¢	$6.2K	$73.7K	+$25.8K	62% 113-70 (183)
FL flawfence	Yesavg 35.9¢	$15.3K	$38.2K	+$22.8K	46% 271-319 (590)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 87.6¢	$1.6K	$20.7K	+$3.9K	72% 176-70 (246)
gopfan2	Yesavg 16.3¢	$2.6K	$14.2K	+$11.6K	51% 901-875 (1776)
RA Railcool	Yesavg 41.6¢	$972.41	$13.0K	+$7.9K	51% 86-81 (167)
AV aviato	Yesavg 68¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$434.38	84% 2440-449 (2889)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 18.3¢	$339.41	$1.8K	+$1.4K	68% 2074-958 (3032)
SI singularityman	Yesavg 72.3¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$329.41	42% 138-193 (331)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 20.9¢	$1.3K	$658.35	-$654.05	47% 476-535 (1011)
studmuffin6969	Yesavg 45¢	$90	$179	+$89	59% 1027-717 (1744)
mountaindewd<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$48.91	$65.34	+$16.43	54% 344-290 (634)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 56.9¢	$330.43	$60.54	-$275.02	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
TT tttt123CTR	Noavg 88¢	$171.31	$20.44	-$150.87	72% 1535-585 (2120)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$42.02	$5.33	-$36.69	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
LU LuckyWin<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$1	$1.32	+$0.32	85% 777-136 (913)

russell110320

Yes

Invested

$6,201.3

Value

$73.7K

PnL

+$25.8K

Record

62%

113-70 (183)

flawfence

Yes

Invested

$15,306.19

Value

$38.2K

PnL

+$22.8K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

balerinacapuchina

Yes

Invested

$1,552.75

Value

$20.7K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

gopfan2

Yes

Invested

$2,632.96

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$11.6K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

Railcool

Yes

Invested

$972.41

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

aviato

Yes

Invested

$1,378

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$434.38

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$339.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

singularityman

Yes

Invested

$1,424.1

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$329.41

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$1,312.4

Value

$658.35

PnL

-$654.05

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

studmuffin6969

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$179

PnL

+$89

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

mountaindewd<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.91

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$16.43

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$330.43

Value

$60.54

PnL

-$275.02

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

tttt123CTR

Invested

$171.31

Value

$20.44

PnL

-$150.87

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$42.02

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$36.69

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

LuckyWin<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.32

Record

85%

777-136 (913)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

141 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.