Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 60.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$28.8

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 50.5¢

-23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,902

Combined PnL-$117.86

Over2 traders

Total Value$479.06

Total Shares1,127

Combined PnL+$89.06

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 66¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$152.67	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 34¢	$366.86	$458.58	+$91.71	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
RN1<$100	Underavg 57¢	$55.86	$90.16	+$34.3	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$23.13	$20.48	-$2.65	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 65¢	$3.61	$3.84	+$0.23	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
MA Markram<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.69	$2.97	+$0.28	70% 2096-917 (3013)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$1,185.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$152.67

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$366.86

Value

$458.58

PnL

+$91.71

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$55.86

Value

$90.16

PnL

+$34.3

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.13

Value

$20.48

PnL

-$2.65

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.23

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Markram<$100

Under

Invested

$2.69

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.28

Record

70%

2096-917 (3013)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.