Consensus PnL -$234K · win rate 46% (203–234, n=437) · was PM monthly #811 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-234.1K
Record
203W / 234L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 437 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1952
Source
PM monthly #811
Trades
43
Markets
480
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Ravens vs. BillsBills $20K · now 62¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes $5.1K · now 61¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (56% of 11)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Over $3.0K · now 56¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (29% of 30)
Specialties
137 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 52¢- College Football
+47 pts
side won 96% of 28 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +51%
- Soccer
+28 pts
side won 84% of 31 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +20%
- Tennis
+27 pts
side won 89% of 19 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +48%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 53% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 86% of 29)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 85% of 67)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 95% of 22)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.