Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 60¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$82.03

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,538

Combined PnL-$116.55

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,628

Combined PnL+$34.51

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Mastermoney	Yesavg 58¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	-$129.3	47% 221-247 (468)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 42¢	$984.81	$1.0K	+$36.47	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$570.15	$573.84	-$6.5	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ No leg	Noavg 42.1¢	$341.85	$333.31	-$8.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$228.3	$240.53	+$2.04
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 57¢	$209.19	$216.53	+$7.34	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
HRTrading	Yesavg 57¢	$146.49	$151.63	+$1.29	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 58.2¢	$145.59	$148.85	+$3.25	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$102.24	$104.6	-$0.47	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$63.28	$66.67	+$0.57
└ No leg	Noavg 42.1¢	$38.96	$37.93	-$1.03
BU BunCaChamCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$82.44	$80.48	-$1.96	97% 2582-68 (2650)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$24.73	$25.61	+$0.88	53% 2250-1980 (4230)

Mastermoney

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$129.3

Record

47%

221-247 (468)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$984.81

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$36.47

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$570.15

Value

$573.84

PnL

-$6.5

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

Invested

$209.19

Value

$216.53

PnL

+$7.34

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$146.49

Value

$151.63

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$145.59

Value

$148.85

PnL

+$3.25

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$102.24

Value

$104.6

PnL

-$0.47

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Yes$63.2856¢+$0.57

No$38.9642.1¢-$1.03

BunCaChamCTR<$100

Invested

$82.44

Value

$80.48

PnL

-$1.96

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.73

Value

$25.61

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.